Public Education (002607) in-depth report： 100 billion market value1.
0 version of the battle crowned do not forget the original heart 2.
Version 0 begins with one step
Public Education (002607) in-depth report: 100 billion market value1.
0 version of the battle crowned do not forget the original heart 2.
Version 0 begins with one step
Different views from the market: The market is concerned and worried about the company’s public examination training upper limit and the scale and feasibility of expanding from the public examination to the postgraduate entrance examination and quality training.
We believe that in the background of the natural increase in the number of reference examinations, the participation rate is expected to exceed 30%. The average student is expected to exceed 10,000 yuan, and the scale of the public examination market is expected to reach 200 trillion.
Since 2010, the public examination training industry has gradually entered the silver age, and the leader has further increased the city’s share by deeply matching demand and optimizing supply.
The company has 10 years of vertical deep farming public examination, relying on the four modernizations (specialized in research and development, full-time teachers, direct channel operation, and technological operation) to continuously strengthen the rapid response capability of vertical deep farming integration, and take the lead in realizing revenue on the single training trackThe scale is over 3 billion pounds. Since 2010, it has successfully achieved training in public institutions such as public institutions, teaching and recruiting, and completed the goal of rebuilding a public examination. It has verified that the company’s vertical integration ability has been maximized and it provides a highly decentralized market.High-quality supply, solved the core problem of cross-track in the field of vocational training, and transformed 2.
0 and 3.
A sustainable basis for horizontal development at stage 0.
We are optimistic that the company relies on the vertical integration of rapid response capabilities in multiple crossovers in the direction of concentric intersections, relying on 3 principles (controllable business model, low business model principle, and project replication), continuously optimize supply and reshape many vocational trainingIn the track field, following the public examination leader, the public recruitment leader has further improved its professional ability, and the non-education vocational training leader has developed.
0: Establish the core competence of “3 + 4”.
2000-2010 is the golden age of public examination training. The national examination has become more popular. The provincial examination has been continuously standardized. The public examination track has been continuously expanded.Scale foundation, deeply cultivated college student groups, heavy R & D and mature curriculum development system construction, took the lead in promoting the national channel expansion and sinking process to realize the change of the model of agency first and direct management, and the first unit price development and expansion of the contract class model,Established vertical integration and rapid response capabilities, and also laid out other public service training tracks in a forward-looking manner.
After 2010, the industry entered the silver age. The two distinctive characteristics of the rapid increase in participation rate and the intensification of the expansion of leading companies during the period, the company surpassed Huatu to become the leader of public examination training, and carried out in the field of public institution and teacher recruitment trainingSuccessful leapfrogging has not only achieved the desire to re-create a public examination, but also in other public service training markets where the recruiting scale is several times that of civil servants.The “major feat” with a scale exceeding US $ 5 billion has verified the feasibility of horizontal expansion of the company’s vertical integration and rapid response capabilities.Policy, the high degree of decentralization of county-level decentralized organization of examinations and the successful leapfrogging of multiple markets, both a horizontal expansion within the training track for public employment recruitment, and also from 1.
Stage 0 achieves 1.
The span of 5 stages is 2.
0 and 3.
Stage 0 development prospects provide foundations and provide examples.
0: Draw concentric circles well, horizontal expansion of multi-category fields in vocational education has emerged.
① Concentric and diversified development is the ability of outstanding companies to break through the bottom and core: the development of any enterprise is a process of constantly breaking through barriers, relying on existing advantages to provide more diversified products and services to the core, thereby achieving concentricity of its core advantagesRound extensions and constant ceiling expansion.
The company’s own growth flywheel has been established, and this is why the core ability of outstanding companies to continuously expand and develop and open up growth space.
The core competence of CCP’s concentric circle development gradually in stage 0, 2.
Phase 0 concentric circle expansion gradually re-creates a public examination market: Congong has established vertical deep integration and rapid response capabilities in the public examination field, which has laid the foundation for the company’s concentric diversification: deep cultivation of college student groups and deep and continuous national declineThe growth of nearly a thousand channel outlets provides a similar basis for multi-type horizontal expansion of customers and channel promotion, and the basis for channel correlation between demand response and supply reach. It can grow in the highly decentralized market development of institutions and teacher recruitment trainingSuccessful experience and cross-track project operation experience, vertical integration, rapid response and dimensionality reduction, advanced research, IT training, self-test and other tracks, 2.
The stage 0 concentric circle multi-category expansion strategy has begun to bear fruit: the company entered the postgraduate training, financial accounting and IT training fields around 2014.
In 2018, the market size of the company’s postgraduate training is expected to reach a level of about 5 trillion millimeters. It is expected that this year it will break through the 10 trillion magnitude scale and gradually become the leader of the postgraduate training.
The company’s IT training plan is quickly breaking through the multi-million scale scale, and the IT training market is further integrated.
③The Congong Deep Plowing IT training and postgraduate courses are nearly 100 billion in market scale, trying to recreate a public job recruitment training business scale: there are many participants in the postgraduate IT training market, but the degree of large-scale development is still decreasing, and the phenomenon of supply homogeneity is serious.The market supply is difficult to meet the user’s personalized and diversified needs, and the ability to supply and respond to demand is still weak. At present, the scale of the post-graduate title company has not significantly exceeded the 1 billion trillion level, showing the same enterprise size door as many vocational training segments.Biological characteristics, we believe that the market demand for the postgraduate recruitment training with rigid demand and the IT practical skills training with strong vocational skills demand still has a lot of room for excavation. In the mid-term, the postgraduate track will be 300 million dollars and the IT training track will be 600The market scale of 10,000 US dollars still has several times room for improvement. We are optimistic about the company’s integration of resources, optimization of supply, and boosting track capacity.
0: Create a comprehensive vocational education training platform, enter vocational ability training, and participate in the development of a trillion-level vocational training market.
Phase 0 transforms the formation and expansion of platform capabilities, further participates in the Nuggets nearly trillion-level non-educational vocational training market, and improves the life cycle of single customers.
With the comprehensive development of vertical integration of multiple divided tracks, the company is expected to gradually form a comprehensive vocational education and training platform and further extend to the market for vocational ability improvement training.
With the company’s employment training and vocational ability improvement aimed at 18-35 and even 45-year-old core population, it can provide more diversified products, which will help significantly enhance the life cycle of a single customer and build a vocational training service ecosystem.
The current national personal training + enterprise training market size is about 820 billion, and it is expected to reach nearly 1 trillion by 2020, with the company at 3.
Phase 0 expansion is a natural extension of the company’s needs around personal training and even corporate training. The scale of the development ceiling is gradually increased and expanded.
With the expansion of the track and the vertical deep cultivation process, the company’s operation management and system upgrade will also bring shocks and challenges, and will also test the company’s management system conversion and upgrading ability, and test the company’s “four modernizations” core competence upgrade.
② It changes with time, and launches a training and learning base model 杭州桑拿 tailored to local conditions, the core of which is to meet the individual needs of customers and the feasibility of finance. It seems to be heavy, but it is light.
As early as 2010, the company established the first flagship learning center for public examination training in China. In 2011, it created a learning model for public training bases, which radiated from Beijing to many provinces. At present, the company’s learning base is still advancing.
The promotion of asset-focused learning centers has become an important focus of the market, and it is feared that excessive models will cause the company’s return on investment and ROE level to be lowered.
We believe that the core of the efforts to learn the basic model is firstly to better meet the personalized needs of some books with closed learning, and secondly it comes from the digestion and absorption of financial economics and positive externalities.
The company ‘s scale of hotel rental costs has continued to increase and the matching details of suitable venues have increased after the expansion. The start-up fee accounts for more than 15% of the company ‘s revenue and the scale reaches 1 billion.The construction of a reasonable and reasonable learning infrastructure with cash flow is conducive to fully digesting the positive externalities brought by the training business, and to reduce the personalized needs of training customers, improve the scale of cost savings and increase supporting service revenue.
Earnings forecast and estimation: We maintain the company’s net profit attributable to its mother for 19-21 years to 16.
The forecast of 6.6 billion US dollars corresponds to zero EPS.
51 yuan / share, the corresponding PE is 58.
3 and 31 times.
Bullish on the company by 1.
0 continues to 2.
The development and promotion process at stage 0, as well as future progress, has the potential to further build a vocational education ecosystem.
Maintain a highly recommended level.
Risk reminder: education integration fails to meet expectations, education policy risks, cross-category expansion fails to meet expected risks, and risks of pressure on the company’s operations and management in the rapid expansion process