Jiujiu Liquor (000799): Quarterly fluctuations do not change the company’s mid-to-long-term development logic is optimistic about the internal reference, Jiujii heavy volume in the fourth quarter

Jiujiu Liquor (000799): Quarterly fluctuations do not change the company’s mid-to-long-term development logic is optimistic about the internal reference, Jiujii heavy volume in the fourth quarter
Company performance Jiujiu Jiu released the third quarter report of 2019 on October 17, the first three quarters of operating income9.6.8 billion (+27.34%), net profit attributable to mother 1.8.4 billion (+14.26%); single quarter operating income2.5.9 billion (+9.48%), net profit attributable to mother 0.2.8 billion (-39.50%), performance is lower than market expectations. Performance review The third quarter revenue was lower than market expectations, which is expected to be mainly related to the company’s active adjustment of channel inventory.Third quarter operating income +9.48%, a substantial breakthrough in the ring comparison. In terms of product segmentation, we expect that the third-quarter growth rate of products such as internal reference, alcoholics, and Xiangquan will improve on a quarter-on-quarter basis.Among them, the growth rate of the alcoholic series is expected to decline significantly 成都桑拿网 from the previous month, mainly due to the relatively large red altar actively adjusting inventory (the red altar will stop stocking in Hunan Province on June 28 and resume supply at the end of August).On the whole, we expect the company to be in the stage of actively adjusting channel inventory in the third quarter, and the pace of change will be significantly biased. The negative growth of Q3’s net profit was mainly due to the increase in sales expense ratio.Looking at the preliminary income statement, the single Q3 gross margin was 77.56%, increasing by 0 every year.87pct, mainly due to the increase in the percentage of internal reference + alcoholic products with high gross profit margin.From the perspective of expenses, the management expense ratio is basically flat, and the main factor leading to the decline in profits every year is the increase in the sales expense ratio (Q3 sales expense ratio 37.53%, ten years +10.20pct), we expect additional expenses may be confirmed in the third quarter (among which, it is expected that the proportion of advertising expenses may increase, while the rate of revenue growth has changed, and the scale effect has declined), and the overall net interest rate has decreased by 8.81 points. Q3 advance receipts increased by 0.60 ppm, increasing by 0 every year.77 trillion, high certainty in the fourth quarter results.Judging from the changes in advance receipts, the company will be heavy in the fourth quarter, which further confirms our view of digesting inventory in the third quarter.According to the merger channel investigation, the current inventory level is at a low level. The fourth quarter has always been the peak season for alcoholic wine shipments. During the Spring Festival this year, we are optimistic about the company’s fourth quarter performance.At the same time, we expect that the confirmation of expenses in the fourth quarter will be relatively reduced, and the profit in the fourth quarter is expected to be released. The fluctuation of quarterly performance does not change the logic of medium and long-term development, and the company’s growth space is still feasible.Expense adjustments between quarters are a normal phenomenon. The merger took the initiative to adjust inventory, resulting in lower-than-expected third-quarter results.Advance receipts from the company and net cash flow from operations (ten years +0.Looking at $ 7.5 billion, we believe that the company’s current operation is healthy and the medium- and long-term logic is unchanged. It is expected that the internal reference and alcoholics will begin to increase in the fourth quarter. In addition, the expansion outside the province will proceed smoothly.Long-term development. Profit forecast predicts that operating income will increase by +30 in 19-21.5% / 28.6% / 26.At 7%, net profit attributable to mothers increased by +30 respectively.7% / + 29.9% / + 28.8%, corresponding EPS is 0.90 yuan / 1.16 yuan / 1.50 yuan, currently expected to correspond to 19/20/21 PE respectively 42X / 32X / 25X, maintain “Buy” rating. Risk prompts demand growth rate / sub-high end space compression

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