Guiguan Electric Power (600236): Hydropower subject to inflow water, but Heshan Hydropower Station ‘s power generation has increased significantly

Guiguan Electric Power (600236): Hydropower subject to inflow water, but Heshan Hydropower Station ‘s power generation has increased significantly

Event: The company released its 2019 Interim Report.

The company achieved operating income of 47 in the first half of the year.

16 trillion, a reduction of 0 a year.

8%; realized net profit of return to mother 12.

27 ppm, a reduction of 3 per year.

2%, in line with Shen Wanwanyuan’s expectations.

Key points of investment: Dry water from the Hongshui River Basin weighs on hydropower generation.

Since the beginning of 2019, the global El Ni?o phenomenon has been strong. The southern region as a whole has a large but uneven distribution. The red water basin where the company is located is dry.

The company achieved 177 hydropower generation in the first half of the year.

6.1 billion kWh, a reduction of 7 per year.

7%, of which Longtan and Yantan, the main sources of profit, decreased by 11 respectively.

7% and 11.

8%.

Water supply in Guangxi Province has improved during the flood season. In July, the average number of hours of hydropower utilization in a month increased by 16 consecutive hours. It is expected that hydropower performance will improve in the second half of the year.

The improvement of Guangxi’s supply and demand caused the total increase in the amount of thermal power generation in the mountain, and the thermal power business has reduced losses. Guangxi Province is the main destination for the electrolytic aluminum industry transfer in the power grid.

9%, the impact of the combined hydropower generation reduced, the company’s Heshan Power Plant realized power generation in the first half of the year.

7.4 billion kWh, an increase of 59 in ten years.

28%.

At the same time, it benefited from the decline in the price index of thermal coal in Guangxi in the first half of the year6.

57%, the company’s thermal power business in the first half of the net profit increased by 3,291 million, repeatedly reducing losses1.

1.9 billion.

Actively optimizing the clean energy power supply structure, and its stable performance is conducive to maintaining high dividends.

As of the end of June 2019, the company’s hydropower, wind power and other clean energy accounted for 88% of installed capacity in service.

77%.

The Guangxi Binyang Mawang Phase I wind power project constructed by the company in 2018 realized the first unit to start production at the end of March 2019. The Mawang Phase II wind power project (100MW) was approved in May. New energy is expected to continue to contribute to the increase in installed capacity.
The company significantly increased the dividend ratio. The dividend ratio for 2016-2018 was 30.

38%, 79.

68% and 63.

56%.

At present, the company’s overall performance is stable, and the high dividend payout ratio is expected to remain.

Yangtze River Power once again increased its shareholding in the company, and its shareholding ratio ranked fifth.

Yangtze Power continued to increase its shareholding in the short-term. It entered the top ten shareholders for the first time in the 2018 annual report, and increased its shareholding again in the first half of 2019.

64% of shares, the current gradually holding proportion has reached 3.

21%, ranking the fifth largest shareholder.

The company’s value is recognized by the highest industrial capital.

Earnings forecast and estimation: Taking into account the situation of incoming water and the adjustment of profit from the downstream of hydropower adjustment, we lowered the net profit return to mothers for 2019-2021 to 24.

67, 25.

91 and 26.62 trillion, respectively (26 before adjustment).

77, 27.

9.6 billion, 苏州桑拿网 28.

5.9 billion), the current sustainable corresponding PE is 15, 14, and 14 times, maintaining the “Buy” rating.

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