China Animal Husbandry (600195) In-depth Research Report: Central Enterprise Mobilization Leader Actively Transforms and Waits for Cycle to Start

China Animal Husbandry (600195) In-depth Research Report: Central Enterprise Mobilization Leader Actively Transforms and Waits for Cycle to Start

Leading state-owned enterprise security insurance with complete categories and steady growth.

The company’s existing business covers four major sectors: veterinary biological products (animal vaccines), veterinary chemicals, feed (premixes and multivitamins), and trade.

Among them, veterinary biological products are the company’s core business, contributing 28% of total revenue and 55% of gross profit in 2018.

  Major animal epidemic vaccines, multivitamin additives, veterinary drugs and other products occupy the forefront of the industry.

  Waiting for the cycle to start after pig breeding, head manufacturers are expected to enjoy the market transformation bonus.

The current growth logic of the animal vaccine industry has changed. The African swine fever epidemic has promoted the adjustment of the industry’s competitive situation. The contraction of government recruiting seedlings has put pressure on the short-term performance of enterprises, and at the same time has accelerated the exit of small and medium-sized enterprises and the clearance of excess industry capacity.The improvement of farming profitability brought by the boom will promote the penetration of market seedlings in large-scale farming enterprises. Manufacturers with core technologies, product layouts and channel advantages will gain higher market share through endogenous growth + outreach mergers and acquisitions.In the future, it is expected that a competitive pattern among major giants will gradually form.

  Zhaozhai Miao’s absolute leader turned to a market-oriented pioneer, and the product continued to rejuvenate.

Swine vaccine: The company’s new type O foot-and-mouth disease vaccine type O and type A bivalent inactivated vaccine have obtained the new veterinary drug registration certificate. In the third quarter of 2019, the company officially announced that it had approved the product approval and went on sale.It can also help the company’s products to further penetrate into large-scale breeding enterprises, develop high-end customers, enhance brand power, and gradually complete channel sinking.

In addition, through the continuous promotion of large-scale breeding, the penetration rate of single products such as the company’s circular vaccine and pseudorabies vaccine will steadily increase, the market space will gradually increase, and the company will have more complete corresponding product series, which will have greater flexibility in future performance.

Poultry seedlings: Improved poultry chain breeding boom + upgrade of highly pathogenic avian influenza vaccine “two-price to three-price” products, both volume and price have risen, the company is expected to continue to realize the existing performance of seedlings.

  Speed up the pace and stimulate the vitality of the enterprise.

From the launch of equity incentive plans, to the establishment of Sino-Public Joint Ventures, and the selection of “Double Hundred Actions” companies, the company has steadily advanced its internal reform plan.

The first phase of the equity incentive plan has reached the conditions for exercise, and then gradually deepened the reform and exploration. The company gradually fully benefited from the activation of the management mechanism and the improvement of management efficiency, and continued to release reform dividends.

  Earnings forecasts, estimates and investment ratings.

We expect the company to achieve operating income of 45 in 19-21.

93/49.

49/53.

850,000 yuan, +3.

6% / 7.

8% / 8.

8%; net profit attributable to mother 4.

40/4.

78/5.

52 trillion, corresponding to 0 EPS.

52/0.

57/0.

66 yuan, +5.

9% / 8.

6% / 15.

6%.

At present, the industry’s overall expected level in 2019 is 26 times. Considering that the company accelerates the pace of market-oriented transformation and the continuous deepening of the subsequent reform of state-owned enterprises, we give the company 26-30 times PE for 19 years, corresponding to 13.

52-15.

6 yuan, the first coverage given a “recommended” rating.

  Risk reminder: Africa’s swine fever epidemic leads to continuous de-capacity of 深圳spa会所 the industry, increasing demand for animal vaccines, veterinary drugs and other products risks dragging down the company’s performance; risk of changes in animal immunization policies causing the company’s performance to decline; the company’s new product research and development and application transformation have not reachedAnticipated risks; the risk that the company’s marketing and channel development will not progress well; the intensified market competition will cause the company’s profitability to tilt.

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