PetroChina (601857): Performance Upstream Focuses on H2 Capital Expenditure Completion

PetroChina (601857): Performance Upstream Focuses on H2 Capital Expenditure Completion

Event: The company released its semi-annual report for 2019 and achieved a total operating income of 11962 in 19H1.

5.9 billion (+6 year-on-year.

8%), achieving net profit attributable to mother 284.

2.3 billion (+3 year-on-year.

6%) and realized operating net cash flow of 1344.

250,000 yuan (YOY-9.

1%), in line with market expectations.

  Profits from exploration and production have greatly increased, and the performance of refining and chemicals has fallen sharply. From the perspective of plate operations in the first half of 2019, exploration and production have achieved both volume and price increases-domestic crude oil achieved 369.

8 million barrels, an increase of 1 in ten years.

6%, natural gas production 1825.

1bcf (billion cubic feet), surpassing the added value of 10.

7%, the total oil and gas production equivalent of 19H1 Group is 779.

4 million barrels, which will increase by 5.

9%; the average realized price of crude oil / natural gas is 3170 yuan / ton and 1391 yuan / thousand cubic meters, each time +5.

8 / -1.


The operating profit of the exploration and production segment in 19H1 was 536.

28 trillion, a big increase of 79 in ten years.

4%; Affected by the increase in crude oil prices and the general decline in the prices of refining and chemical products, the domestic refining gross margin has narrowed significantly, and the company’s refining and chemical business performance has also been severely challenged: the company’s operating profit in 19H1 was 49.

67 trillion, 18H1 (246.

91 percent of $ 79 billion.

88%; of which refining / chemical is 13 respectively.


900,000 yuan, a total of 92 in ten years.



  The estimated value added of the capital expenditure of the H2 exploration and production segment is USD 60 billion, and the exploration and development is USD 228.2 billion, which is the absolute largest proportion of capital expenditures. The capital expenditure of the Group’s exploration and production segment in the first half of 2019 was RMB693.

US $ 8.3 billion, mainly for domestic exploration of key basins in Songliao, Ordos, Tarim, Sichuan, Bohai Bay, and the development of oil and gas fields 杭州桑拿 in Daqing and Changqing; the completion rate in the first half of the year was 30.

40% is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year.

It is expected that the company’s performance will be further concentrated in the future, and the overall performance and the correlation of oil prices will be broken down.

  Profit forecast: The net profit attributable to mothers is expected to be 578 in 2019-2021.



62 ppm, corresponding to 19/19/18 times the corresponding PE, maintaining the “overweight” level.

  Risk reminder: Macroeconomic downside risks, capital expenditures for exploration and production are less than expected.

Jiangling Motors (000550): Focus on Light Commercial Vehicles to Reduce Costs and Increase Efficiency, Waiting for Recovery

Jiangling Motors (000550): Focus on Light Commercial Vehicles to Reduce Costs and Increase Efficiency, Waiting for Recovery

Company NewsCompany StatusWe participated in the investor exchange meeting held by JMC on July 17.

  The review seeks profit opportunities with high gross profit margins in the advancement of light commercial vehicles.

The segmentation of the light commercial vehicle market segment requires a high degree of understanding of customer application scenarios and needs. JMC has deep accumulation and experience in this field, has traditional advantages, and has a profitability far exceeding the passenger vehicle segment.Source of profit.

We expect the company to continue to increase investment in commercial vehicles, establish commercial vehicle centers, and strengthen channel construction and cost control.

  In the high-end process of light commercial vehicles, there are many profit opportunities in the high gross margin segment model market. Only in the high gross margin model market such as ambulances, JMC’s market share has exceeded 50%. JMC will continue to grasp moreGross 北京养生 Margin Segment Opportunities.

  Improve capacity utilization with low-margin SUV products and export business.

Under the high pressure of the industry, the company’s passenger car segment is less profitable, and the company’s SUV products are more cost-effective, but it is difficult to find systematic opportunities in the red sea of joint ventures and autonomous divisions, resulting in passenger car sales that cannot achieve scale breakthroughs.

The company’s export business is also actively promoted, expanding from commercial vehicle exports to passenger vehicles.

We believe that the company can share depreciation through low-margin SUV products and export business, while improving overall capacity utilization. The Ford Jiangling brand will also continue to benefit from Ford’s channel and brand support, and then continue to launch new products.

  Cost reduction and efficiency improvement await the adjustment and recovery of the industry.

The price fluctuations of the company’s products are extremely stable, and the price-for-amount swap is not obvious. We expect the company to reduce costs and increase efficiency in the industry’s downward interval to improve internal operating efficiency, pending the industry’s recovery.

The “large tonnage and small standard” incident has a short-term impact on the light truck industry, but we believe that for Jiangling, which mainly carries light truck products, the industry’s supervision is strict, which can rectify irregularities, help the company’s market share recover, and promote the industry.Medium and long-term healthy development.

  It is estimated that the company released a performance forecast last week, saying that the net profit attributable to the mother in the first half of the year is expected to reach 58.86 million yuan, which is lower than the market and our expectations. Considering that the company’s sales and profitability pressures have been overcome, the passenger car segment has developed less than expected.Revise down the company’s 19-20 year profit forecast by 53% and 36% to 2.

7.6 billion and 5.

7.5 billion.

At present the company corresponds to 1.

5x2019e / 2020e P / B, we maintain the company’s neutral rating, taking into account earnings forecast adjustments, we cut the company’s A / B share target price by 30% to 21 yuan / 7.

9 reconstruction, A shares correspond to 1.

7x2019e / 2020e P / B, there is 12% upside from the current price.

B shares correspond to 0.

6x2019e / 2020e P / B, there is 5% upside from the current price.

  Risky commercial vehicle profit recovery is lower than expected.

Nanjing-Shanghai Expressway (600377): Good choice for defense configuration with performance in line with expectations

Nanjing-Shanghai Expressway (600377): Good choice for defense configuration with performance in line with expectations

In the first half of the year, income fell by 5 per year.

96%, deducting non-net profit increased by 9 in ten years.

78%, performance in line with expectations On August 25, Ninghu Expressway released its 2019 Interim Report: 1) Revenue decreased by 5.

96% to 48.

3.5 billion yuan, net profit attributable to mothers decreased by 8.

30% to 22.

8.2 billion, net non-profit increased by 9.

78% to 22.

6.6 billion yuan; 2) Performance is in line with expectations (our profit forecast is 22.

04 billion).

In the same period last year, the company confirmed the value-added income due to the consolidation of Hanwei Company4.

310,000 yuan, making the performance base higher.

The non-performance growth mainly comes from the endogenous growth of traffic flow and increased investment income.

We expect the EPS for 2019-2021 to be zero.



96 yuan, adjust the target price to 10.


20 yuan, maintaining the “overweight” level.

The main business of toll roads has grown steadily. Due to the 1H19 revenue interruption in the land business during the settlement cycle, the gross profit decreased by 5.

96%, 0.

19%, mainly affected by the land settlement cycle, the delivery scale is less than 1H18; toll roads and real estate account for 90% and 7% of gross profit.

Benefiting from the endogenous growth of traffic flow, toll revenue is increasing by 5 per year.

18%; of which, Shanghai-Nanjing Expressway revenue on core sections increased by 4 year-on-year.

84%, Guangjing Xicheng, Ningchang Town, and the income of Xiyihuan Taihu Expressway increased by 2.

88%, 5.

03%, 3.


Land business income is reduced by 48 per year.

38%, mainly due to the central delivery of Suzhou South Gate project in 1H18, and no new delivery project in 1H19.

Ancillary service income is reduced by 14 each year.

96%, due to the implementation of double-deck tank reforms in service areas, sales of oil products decreased by 17%.


The high base dragged down the growth rate of net profit, investment income increased by 1H19 each year, and the company’s gross profit decreased by 5.59 million yuan; after deducting 1H18 the value-added income of Hanwei Company4.

After 3.1 billion, operating profit in 1H19 increased further 2.

6.9 billion yuan.

The difference is mainly due to the increase in non-investment income1.
The increase of 7.8 billion US dollars was mainly due to the increase in vehicle traffic of associates and the increase in dividends of participating companies. Among them, the investment income of the Yangtze Bridge and Sujiahang increased.
93%, 21.


Due to the new highway construction, 3 companies with heavy capital expenditures are under construction in 2019-2021, and 1 road and bridge project is planned to be built, with a total investment of about 25.5 billion yuan, of which Wufeng Mountain, Changyi and Yichang project progress is 64.

4%, 58.

5%, 38.


We expect capital expenditure to remain high in 2019-2021, and short-term cash flow will be affected to a certain extent; due to the capitalization of loan interest, the net profit during the construction period will decrease less.

Affected by the abolition of the provincial border toll station policy across the country, the company will complete the ETC equipment renovation in the second half of the year; starting in July, the Jiangsu ETC discount will be adjusted from 98% to 5%.

In the long run, charging efficiency is expected to improve, and labor costs (1H19 is 2).

9.9 billion) is expected to decline.

We expect the multi-year impact of ETC discount changes on Jiangsu rates to be -2.

5% (2H19), -3.

5% (1H20), -1.

0% (2H20), but increased efficiency and reduced rates also attract traffic.

Adjust target price to 10.


20 yuan, to maintain the “overweight” rating We adjust the 2019/20/21 return to mother’s net profit forecast to 40.



2.8 billion (previously 41.



6.8 billion).

We expect dividends to grow steadily in 2019/20/21, corresponding to a dividend yield of 4.

8% / 5.

0% / 5.

2% (closing date 20190823).

We adjust our target price to 10.


20 yuan (10 last time.


00 yuan), based on: 1) still based on 13.

3x 2019PE (industry estimated hub is 10.

2x 2019PE, given a premium due to high yields), with an estimated target price of 10.

80 yuan; 2) DCF: based on WACC = 7.

81% (previous 7).

86%) Estimated target price 11.

20 yuan.
Maintain 青岛夜网 the “overweight” rating.

Risk reminder: The economic scale of the Yangtze River Delta, the traffic growth rate exceeds expectations, and real estate sales are lower than expected.

Annual report series of thematic analysis of consumer companies (3): Aoji e-commerce (834206): Some categories incubate mature revenues to achieve 35.

83% growth

Annual report series of thematic analysis of consumer companies (3): Aoji e-commerce (834206): Some categories incubate mature revenues to achieve 35.

83% growth

Event: The company released the 2018 performance report, and the company’s revenue was 50.

760,000 yuan, an increase of 35 in ten years.

83%, net profit attributable to mothers2.

49 ppm, a five-year increase of 5.


Leader in cross-border e-commerce, the business involves multiple platforms: the company operates cross-border e-commerce business, mainly through Amazon, eBay, Wish, AliExpress and other third-party sales platforms and self-built sales websites, direct cost-effective products made in China directlySales to foreign consumers.

The company’s business development involves multiple e-commerce platforms. In addition to self-built independent websites in German, French, and other small European languages, it also involves in third-party international platforms such as Amazon, eBay, AliExpress, Wish, Tmall, and JD.Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Portugal, the United Kingdom, Russia, Japan, Canada, the United States and other 200 countries and regions, operating categories include digital electronics, photography equipment, wedding apparel, fashion apparel, car, homeWait.

(Company official website, company announcement) “Independent brand + comprehensive category”, category incubation matures to drive good performance: In the independent brand segment, the company established multiple brand divisions, using the “independent research and development design + external processing and production” independent brandProduct model, product differentiation and cost advantages are obvious; on the integrated category side, the company uses its own built IT system and adopts the “pan supply chain, multi-channel, multi-category, multi-warehouse” business model to bring high-quality products made in China toSell products to overseas buyers through self-built shopping websites and third-party shopping platform channels.

The integrated category business has the advantages of rich product categories and diverse supply channels.

Against the background of industry growth, the company has expanded research and development of independent brand products and market development efforts. Some categories have matured incubation, and the revenue scale has continued to grow. In 2018, the company’s 厦门夜网 revenue was 50.

760,000 yuan, an increase of 35 in ten years.


Deeply integrate the supply chain and establish a cross-border e-commerce collaborative ecosystem: The company strives to build an ecosystem with high-quality manufacturers and merchants by deepening the supply chain.

In the future, Aoji e-commerce will further deepen the integration of the supply chain and build its own brand, integrate its own brand with its own website and open its own website platform, accelerate the layout of the global logistics system and payment platform, and develop derivative services related to supply chain finance, etc.
(Company official website) Implement employee equity incentive plan to further stimulate employee enthusiasm: According to the company’s announcement, the company completed a stock increase in September 2018, and issued 187 shares at the price of 12 yuan / share.

50,000 shares, raised a total of 22.5 million yuan, 8 of the 25 participants in the subscription are called company executives, 17 core employees.

The latest closing price of Aojie E-commerce is 56 yuan / share. Based on this calculation, the actual market value of this part of the stock is as high as 105 million yuan.

The 25 subscribers of Aoji e-commerce can currently get nearly 82.5 million yuan of Fuying (company annual report) investment advice: to transform into the “Internet + foreign trade” strategy implemented by China, and the ceiling of the cross-border e-commerce industry is sufficiently high.The future outlook continues to maintain a high growth rate.

We are optimistic about the company’s benchmarking branches in cross-border e-commerce leading companies and industries in China, and the latest company’s PE (TTM) is 19.

3x, it is recommended to pay attention.

Risk reminder: Consumption upgrade fails to meet expectations; Macroeconomics fails to meet expectations; Policy risks

Dabeinong (002385): Transgenic corn traits approved as scheduled, bright prospects

Dabeinong (002385): Transgenic corn traits approved as scheduled, bright prospects

Event: On December 30, 2019, the Ministry of 杭州夜网论坛 Agriculture and Rural Affairs announced that it plans to approve the submission of two genetically modified corn traits, namely Dabeinong DBN9936 insect-resistant corn-transgenic (Bt Cry1Ab) insect-resistant corn, Ruifeng Biological and Zhejiang University Double Antibody (Longping(Related to Tsuen Silver) 12-5 corn-transgenic Cry1Ab2AjG10evo (EPSPS) gene insect-resistant glyphosate-resistant corn.

After 20 working days publicity period, two varieties successfully obtained agricultural GMO safety certificate (production application) on January 21, 2020, with a validity period of 5 years, that is, the trait can be used for commercialization.

Approved on schedule, the commercialization of genetically modified maize has been progressing smoothly.

After the publicity period, the merger company successfully obtained approval, which means that there is no suspense for the commercialization of genetically modified corn.

Follow-up needs to follow up additional details of the variety approval method, the transfer of traits and the rhythm of variety approval.

An optimistic estimate is that there may be products on the market in 2021.

Planting benefits have improved significantly and are expected to expand rapidly.

GMO promotion is a major technological upgrade of China’s corn industry. According to the company’s estimation, the application of GM technology will increase the comprehensive income of at least 100 yuan per mu of corn planting, based on about 600 million mu nationwide. Assuming 90% promotion, the industry yearIncreased revenue by more than 54 billion.

Significant benefit differences are expected to lead to the rapid expansion of GM corn seeds in China.

Double resistance traits are in line with international standards and meet domestic planting needs.

According to the company announcement, the DBN9936 approved this time has multiple independent intellectual property rights.

From the angle of insect resistance, it has a broad spectrum of resistance. It has good resistance to major lepidopteran pests that harm corn, including corn borer and oriental armyworm, and it has certain resistance to Spodoptera frugiperda.

Spodoptera frugiperda invaded Yunnan in January 2019 and spread rapidly to the northeast. It is currently the key prevention and control pest.

In addition, DBN9936’s glyphosate tolerance also meets the actual needs of growers.

From the perspective of traits, it has been in line with international popular varieties and also meets current domestic planting needs.

Investment suggestion: The promotion of genetically modified corn seeds is an event of industrial progress, which will benefit the seed industry sector in an all-round way.

In the medium and long term, companies with both traits and seeds will be the first choice for success.

Dabeinong Biotechnology is the core of the trait. It is oriented to the internal layout of the second and 淡水桑拿网 third generations of corn and soybeans. It has also set a 10-year R & D plan since 2015.

Seeds, Golden Nonghua has become one of the mainstream corn seed companies in the market after years of accumulation, and is expected to become the main body for the promotion of genetically modified varieties in the future.

We will continue to track the progress of seed varieties, and we recommend that we continue to focus on Dabei farmers, Longping Hi-tech, which also has traits and seeds, and corn seeds representing Denghai Seed Industry.

Risk Warning: The approval progress is not up to expectations, agricultural product prices fluctuate, policy changes, and international trade policy changes

Guiguan Electric Power (600236): Hydropower subject to inflow water, but Heshan Hydropower Station ‘s power generation has increased significantly

Guiguan Electric Power (600236): Hydropower subject to inflow water, but Heshan Hydropower Station ‘s power generation has increased significantly

Event: The company released its 2019 Interim Report.

The company achieved operating income of 47 in the first half of the year.

16 trillion, a reduction of 0 a year.

8%; realized net profit of return to mother 12.

27 ppm, a reduction of 3 per year.

2%, in line with Shen Wanwanyuan’s expectations.

Key points of investment: Dry water from the Hongshui River Basin weighs on hydropower generation.

Since the beginning of 2019, the global El Ni?o phenomenon has been strong. The southern region as a whole has a large but uneven distribution. The red water basin where the company is located is dry.

The company achieved 177 hydropower generation in the first half of the year.

6.1 billion kWh, a reduction of 7 per year.

7%, of which Longtan and Yantan, the main sources of profit, decreased by 11 respectively.

7% and 11.


Water supply in Guangxi Province has improved during the flood season. In July, the average number of hours of hydropower utilization in a month increased by 16 consecutive hours. It is expected that hydropower performance will improve in the second half of the year.

The improvement of Guangxi’s supply and demand caused the total increase in the amount of thermal power generation in the mountain, and the thermal power business has reduced losses. Guangxi Province is the main destination for the electrolytic aluminum industry transfer in the power grid.

9%, the impact of the combined hydropower generation reduced, the company’s Heshan Power Plant realized power generation in the first half of the year.

7.4 billion kWh, an increase of 59 in ten years.


At the same time, it benefited from the decline in the price index of thermal coal in Guangxi in the first half of the year6.

57%, the company’s thermal power business in the first half of the net profit increased by 3,291 million, repeatedly reducing losses1.

1.9 billion.

Actively optimizing the clean energy power supply structure, and its stable performance is conducive to maintaining high dividends.

As of the end of June 2019, the company’s hydropower, wind power and other clean energy accounted for 88% of installed capacity in service.


The Guangxi Binyang Mawang Phase I wind power project constructed by the company in 2018 realized the first unit to start production at the end of March 2019. The Mawang Phase II wind power project (100MW) was approved in May. New energy is expected to continue to contribute to the increase in installed capacity.
The company significantly increased the dividend ratio. The dividend ratio for 2016-2018 was 30.

38%, 79.

68% and 63.


At present, the company’s overall performance is stable, and the high dividend payout ratio is expected to remain.

Yangtze River Power once again increased its shareholding in the company, and its shareholding ratio ranked fifth.

Yangtze Power continued to increase its shareholding in the short-term. It entered the top ten shareholders for the first time in the 2018 annual report, and increased its shareholding again in the first half of 2019.

64% of shares, the current gradually holding proportion has reached 3.

21%, ranking the fifth largest shareholder.

The company’s value is recognized by the highest industrial capital.

Earnings forecast and estimation: Taking into account the situation of incoming water and the adjustment of profit from the downstream of hydropower adjustment, we lowered the net profit return to mothers for 2019-2021 to 24.

67, 25.

91 and 26.62 trillion, respectively (26 before adjustment).

77, 27.

9.6 billion, 苏州桑拿网 28.

5.9 billion), the current sustainable corresponding PE is 15, 14, and 14 times, maintaining the “Buy” rating.

Conch Cement (600585) Quarterly Report Comments: Q3 Off-season Sales Exceed Expected Growth

Conch Cement (600585) Quarterly Report Comments: Q3 Off-season Sales Exceed Expected Growth

The off-season performance was slightly better than expected. In the peak season of Q4, companies with good supply and demand gradually realized revenue of 1108 trillion from January to September, an increase of 42% year-on-year. Net profit attributable to mothers was 23.8 billion yuan, an increase of 15% year-on-year, slightly better than the market and our expectationsBillion); net profit of RMB 23.2 billion deducted from non-attributed mothers, a year-on-year increase of 14%.

The company ‘s Q3 revenue and return to net profit increased earlier than Q2 in the short-term, due to the slight decline in prices during the off-season, but the sales growth rate of Q3 was better than 南京夜网 expected. Land demand in Q4 is expected to remain unchanged. Infrastructure investment continues to recover moderately., Yunnan, Jiangxi and other provinces have recently resumed strong demand. They continue to be optimistic about the company’s gradual operating growth and asset quality optimization, and maintain the company’s EPS 6 in 19-21.



48 yuan forecast, maintain “Buy” rating.

In Q3, the off-season sales growth exceeded expectations. The average price dropped slightly in the previous quarter. In 19Q3, the company realized revenue of 39.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22%. It realized a net profit attributable to its mother of 8.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 10%.12% increased, but still maintained rapid double-digit growth.

We estimate that the company produced and sold cement clinker in the first three quarters2.

300 million tons, an increase of 8% year-on-year, of which 8,600 vehicles were sold in the third quarter, an increase of 12% year-on-year.

The average price from January to September without tax is about 325 yuan, which is 8 yuan lower than that of 19H1. The average price in the off-season in Q3 was 311 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan.

The contribution of trade income continued to increase, and asset quality was re-optimized. We estimated the company’s cement clinker trade sales volume from January to September was 0.

8.4 billion tons, an increase of 261% before. Due to the increase in the proportion of low-margin trading business, the company’s comprehensive gross profit margin was 32.

4%, a decline of 9 per year.

0pct, a decrease of 11 from 19H1.

8pct narrows.

Expense rate during period 5.

0%, down by 1 every year.

7pct, the three expense ratios (including research and development) have achieved small declines for many years.

The company’s net operating cash inflow from January to September was US $ 26 billion. At the end of September, the company had 445 trillion cash in hand, continuing its net cash position, and a gearing ratio of 20.

5%, up slightly by the end of June 19, 1.

5pct, asset quality maintains industry-leading advantages.

The investment side showed a reasonable growth, Q4 outlook is optimistic According to the National Bureau of Statistics, real estate investment YoY + 10 from January to September this year.

5%, unchanged from the previous value; infrastructure investment YoY + 4.

5%, better than the previous value of 4.

2%, downstream investment showed a strong.

Since this year, the market has expressed a decrease in demand for real estate, but the national cement output from January to September16.

900 million tons, a year-on-year increase of +6.

9%, actual demand is better than expected.

Among them, Guizhou, Yunnan, and Jiangxi crops continued to grow at -2.

1%, 9.

2%, 3.

0%, which is better than the growth rate of -3 in the first six months.

5%, 8.

2%, 0.

7%, which is in line with the expectations of our Interim Report. In the second half of the year, the supply and demand in the mid-western region will usher in improvement.

We expect the counter-cyclical adjustment is expected to increase in the context of continued downward economic pressure, and the outlook for Q4 cement downstream demand is optimistic.

Cement value leader, maintain “Buy” rating company Q3 income and net profit return to double-digit rapid growth, we expect Q4 downstream land demand will remain strong, infrastructure investment continues a moderate recovery, and Northeast and Jiangsu due to overloadAccidents and highways have exceeded expectations. The progress of clinker transportation across regions is expected to decline, and regional prices are expected to be strong.

We maintain the company’s net profit forecast of US $ 322/332/344 million attributable to the parent for the period of 19-21, taking into account the company’s leading position and a more stable dividend yield of 5% -5%, maintaining the company’s target price of 42.
59 yuan (corresponding to 7-8xPE in 19 years), maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk reminder: The real estate new construction starts to speed up the shift significantly, and the implementation of staggered 厦门夜网 peak production is not up to expectations.

Mercury Home Textiles (603365) Quarterly Report Review: 19Q3 Performance Exceeds Market Expectations, Online Channels Recover Rapidly, Profitability Continues to Improve

Mercury Home Textiles (603365) Quarterly Report Review: 19Q3 Performance Exceeds Market Expectations, Online Channels Recover Rapidly, Profitability Continues to Improve

Event: The company announced the third quarter of 2019 results, and the company achieved revenue of 20 in the first three quarters of 19 years.

1.8 billion (+11.

89%), realizing net profit attributable to mothers2.

1.5 billion (+18.

78%), and realized deduction of non-net profit1.

8.4 billion (+14.

75%), achieved steady growth, and the performance slightly exceeded market expectations.

The company achieved revenue 7 in the quarter of 19Q3.

4.2 billion (+15.

43%), and realized a net profit of RMB 80 million (+31).

14%), and realized non-net profit of 76.95 million yuan (+51.


The growth rate of online channels exceeded market expectations, and offline channels continued to grow steadily. 1) Online channels: The company’s online channels exceeded market expectations. We expect online channels to grow by about 17% in the first three quarters of 19 years.

Among them, 19Q1 is expected to be -10.

5%, 19Q2 is 30.

1%, 19Q3 is about 38% growth level.

Negative growth of the company’s e-commerce channel in 19Q1. We believe that it is mainly due to the traffic diversion of mainstream e-commerce platforms. At the same time, the high base of 18Q1 overlaps, leading to the negative growth of the e-commerce channel in 19Q1.Focus on different marketing solutions and product arrangements for different e-commerce platforms. Since the 19Q2 quarter, the company’s online e-commerce channels have improved significantly. The growth rate in the second and third quarters exceeded market expectations, achieving more than 30% growth.It reflects the company’s sustainable e-commerce operation capabilities.

We expect the company’s online channels to achieve double-digit growth in 19 years.

2) Offline channels: The company’s offline channels have maintained steady growth. We expect offline channels to grow by around 9% in the first three quarters of 19 years.

Among them, 19Q1 is expected to be 7.

5%, 19Q2 is 13.

7%, 19Q3 is about 8% growth level.

The company’s offline channels still maintained a good momentum in the third quarter, with steady growth.

At present, the company’s stores are expected to be around 2700. In recent years, the company has improved and improved the quality of its stores. New stores are mainly large stores. Old stores have improved store image and location optimization.

In the context of the company’s few net openings in recent years, offline channels have been able to achieve steady growth. We believe that this is mainly due to the same store growth, which also shows that the company has achieved significant results in improving store quality.

For the whole of 2019, we expect the company’s offline channels to achieve growth of more than 10%.

The gross net interest rate constant increased, and profitability improved.

Gross profit margin: In the first three quarters of 19, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 38.

09% (+ 3.


The Q3 single-quarter gross profit margin was 38.

95% (+5.

79 points).

The company ‘s gross profit margin has increased significantly. We believe that the main reasons are: 1) the company has higher pricing power, and the price of raw materials has been taken into account in the autumn and winter product pricing, and the overall price has increased; 2) the company’s product structure has been continuously optimized, and high-end products, etc.The proportion of products with higher gross profit margins increased, and the amount of the company’s gross profit margin continued to increase.

Expense ratio: The company’s expense ratio increased in the first three quarters of 19, of which the sales / management / finance expense ratio was 19 respectively.

38% (+2.

91 points), 7.

26% (-0.35 points), -0.

34% (-0.


The increase in the company’s sales expense ratio was mainly due to the increase in advertising, transportation costs and sales staff costs.

By quarter, the sales / management / financial expense ratio of the company in 19Q3 was 17 respectively.

94% (+3.

02pct), 7.

44% (-0.

88pct), -0.

33% (-0.


Asset impairment loss: In the first three quarters of 19, the company’s asset impairment loss was 10.99 million yuan (+137.

36%), mainly due to the impact of the company’s inventory depreciation.

Although the company’s asset impairment losses have grown rapidly, the ratio of the absolute amount of its inventory depreciation to the company’s inventory amount is small and has little effect.

Net Margin: As the gross margin increased slightly higher than the expense ratio, the company’s net margin increased slightly.

In the first three quarters of 19, the net interest rate was 10.

64% (+0.


Q3 net profit is 10.

78% (+1.


The company’s inventory has increased slightly, and the net operating cash flow has improved significantly. Inventory: The company’s inventory in the first three quarters of 19 was 8.

980,000 yuan (+7.

86%), a slight increase.

Accounts receivable: The company’s account receivables in the first three quarters of 19 were 1.

8.4 billion (+17.

60%), improving growth, increasing about 4.

36%, a slight increase.

We think it is mainly due to the period of the online platform account period, and the company’s online channels are growing rapidly.

The net operating cash flow is: the company in the first three quarters of 19 years.

09 million yuan, -1 in the same period of 18 years.

60 billion US dollars improved; 19Q3 single quarter was 5.91 million yuan, compared with 19Q2 from negative to positive, a significant improvement.

As the company’s sales peak in the second half of the year, especially in the fourth quarter, is also the peak of repayment, the company’s cash flow is expected to gradually improve.

The company released the first phase of the employee stock ownership plan budget. The maximum scale of funds to be raised is not more than 34 million yuan, and each share is 1 yuan.The highest equity is 0.


The total number of participants in this employee shareholding plan does not exceed 50, including 1 supervisor, with a duration of 36 months.

The company’s share repurchase program for employee stock ownership can motivate employees and highlight the company’s development confidence.

Maintain “Buy” rating.

Considering that the company continues to benefit from the consumption upgrade in low-tier cities; the online growth will continue to stabilize after gradual improvement and measures are taken, and the company’s performance will continue to grow steadily in the 杭州桑拿网 long run.
Home textiles is a highly standardized industry. We believe that the conversion to e-commerce and offline channels continue to penetrate in low-tier cities, and the concentration of the entire industry will significantly increase.
We maintain our highest profit forecast, with revenues expected to be 30 in 19-21.

5.6 billion, 34.

7 billion, 39.

68 ppm with a growth rate of 12 respectively.

40%, 13.

53%, 14.

35%; net profit is 3 respectively.

310,000 yuan, 3.

8.3 billion, 4.

460,000 yuan, an increase of 16 in ten years.

15%, 15.

62%, 16.


Therefore, the EPS is expected to be 1 in 19-21.



67 yuan.

Maintain the company’s 19x PE at 19, with a target price of 24.

80 yuan.

Risk warning: offline channel revenue is less than expected, and new online channel shocks intensify competition.

Seize the hot spot of the accurate card slot market for ETFs in the segmented track industry

Seize the hot spot of the accurate “card slot” market for ETFs in the segmented track industry

Correspondent Chen Xiao ○ Editor Wu Xiaojing entered the three quarters, the structural market has become increasingly fierce, and some industry ETFs in the air outlet have repeatedly won in the market rotation, and therefore have been sought after by “smart money”

  The recently established Huabao CSI Technology Leader ETF has doubled in size in just three days after its listing; the wealthy CSI military leader ETF established at the end of July has exceeded US $ 7 billion; and the upcoming Huaxia 5GETF and feed soybean meal futures ETF,Add a touch of shine to the market.

  The reasons for the frequent “explosion” also include the fund company’s product strategy, resource replenishment, and “card-bit” awareness.

Some people said that the industry ETF, as an important supplement to the broad-based ETF, is an indispensable part of the ETF product line and is also one of the keys to reflecting the differentiation of the fund company’s index strategy.

With the success of securities, liquor, and consumer products, the industry ETF may become a “new highland” for publicly funded ETFs, and will face more fierce competition.

  Since the third quarter, the theme investment has gradually become the focus of market attention.

For example, on July 22, taking advantage of the market opening of the science and technology innovation board, Huabao CSI Leading ETF was formally established with an initial launch size of more than 1 billion. After its listing on August 16, the scale has grown rapidly and has now stabilized at 200.More than 10,000 US dollars, it has become a phenomenon-level product.

As soon as the product was launched, it showed a good money-making effect, with the secondary market price starting from the lowest one in 13 trading days.

019 yuan rose to 1.

147 yuan, an increase of more than 14%.

  5G and other annual hottest is also about to usher in the benchmark ETF products.

The China Securities CSI 5G Communications ETF 杭州龙凤桑拿网 was initially launched this week and is currently the only ETF in the domestic market dedicated to 5G communications.

According to the channel, the amount of funds “pre-ordering” the product from the Internet has exceeded 1 billion yuan.

“The fundraising time may not be too long, because the current point in time is more suitable for building a position, and the demand on the market is more robust after listing.

A channel source told reporters that for some general fund products, ETFs can also be subscribed offline or exchanged for a package of stocks. The process is slightly cumbersome, but customers are still interested in the product.

  After the rise of pork prices, after a wave of company prices, the related ETFs will soon be available.

The recently approved China Feed Soybean Meal Futures ETF is a pure pork-themed ETF.

As the main source of pig feed, soybean meal has significantly benefited from the opportunities brought by the increase in the “pig cycle” inventory.

In addition, the correlation coefficient between soybean meal futures and stocks and bonds is reset to a negative value, and configured to both disperse asset risks and effectively resist royal risks. Commodity futures ETF investment also lowers the threshold for individuals to participate in soybean meal futures.

  Why do industry ETFs appear frequently?

Some people said that the overall market this year presents a structural market and the performance of various industries is different. Industry ETFs can be used as “dimensional reduction” investment tools to provide investors with standard and convenient alternative investment and allocation tools.

  First, the cost of investing in industry ETFs.

The management fee rate is usually a supplement to ordinary open-end funds, and the transaction fee rate is 0 less than the stock.

1% stamp duty, saving about 50% on transaction costs.

Compared with ordinary index funds, ETF transaction costs have also been greatly reduced; secondly, ETFs have become more flexible in trading, spreading risks and operating transparently.

Not only that, the ETF’s purchase and redemption mechanism can also become an alternative investment method for individual stocks and indexes, which has considerable advantages for both institutional investors and retail investors.

Jiujiu Liquor (000799): Quarterly fluctuations do not change the company’s mid-to-long-term development logic is optimistic about the internal reference, Jiujii heavy volume in the fourth quarter

Jiujiu Liquor (000799): Quarterly fluctuations do not change the company’s mid-to-long-term development logic is optimistic about the internal reference, Jiujii heavy volume in the fourth quarter
Company performance Jiujiu Jiu released the third quarter report of 2019 on October 17, the first three quarters of operating income9.6.8 billion (+27.34%), net profit attributable to mother 1.8.4 billion (+14.26%); single quarter operating income2.5.9 billion (+9.48%), net profit attributable to mother 0.2.8 billion (-39.50%), performance is lower than market expectations. Performance review The third quarter revenue was lower than market expectations, which is expected to be mainly related to the company’s active adjustment of channel inventory.Third quarter operating income +9.48%, a substantial breakthrough in the ring comparison. In terms of product segmentation, we expect that the third-quarter growth rate of products such as internal reference, alcoholics, and Xiangquan will improve on a quarter-on-quarter basis.Among them, the growth rate of the alcoholic series is expected to decline significantly 成都桑拿网 from the previous month, mainly due to the relatively large red altar actively adjusting inventory (the red altar will stop stocking in Hunan Province on June 28 and resume supply at the end of August).On the whole, we expect the company to be in the stage of actively adjusting channel inventory in the third quarter, and the pace of change will be significantly biased. The negative growth of Q3’s net profit was mainly due to the increase in sales expense ratio.Looking at the preliminary income statement, the single Q3 gross margin was 77.56%, increasing by 0 every year.87pct, mainly due to the increase in the percentage of internal reference + alcoholic products with high gross profit margin.From the perspective of expenses, the management expense ratio is basically flat, and the main factor leading to the decline in profits every year is the increase in the sales expense ratio (Q3 sales expense ratio 37.53%, ten years +10.20pct), we expect additional expenses may be confirmed in the third quarter (among which, it is expected that the proportion of advertising expenses may increase, while the rate of revenue growth has changed, and the scale effect has declined), and the overall net interest rate has decreased by 8.81 points. Q3 advance receipts increased by 0.60 ppm, increasing by 0 every year.77 trillion, high certainty in the fourth quarter results.Judging from the changes in advance receipts, the company will be heavy in the fourth quarter, which further confirms our view of digesting inventory in the third quarter.According to the merger channel investigation, the current inventory level is at a low level. The fourth quarter has always been the peak season for alcoholic wine shipments. During the Spring Festival this year, we are optimistic about the company’s fourth quarter performance.At the same time, we expect that the confirmation of expenses in the fourth quarter will be relatively reduced, and the profit in the fourth quarter is expected to be released. The fluctuation of quarterly performance does not change the logic of medium and long-term development, and the company’s growth space is still feasible.Expense adjustments between quarters are a normal phenomenon. The merger took the initiative to adjust inventory, resulting in lower-than-expected third-quarter results.Advance receipts from the company and net cash flow from operations (ten years +0.Looking at $ 7.5 billion, we believe that the company’s current operation is healthy and the medium- and long-term logic is unchanged. It is expected that the internal reference and alcoholics will begin to increase in the fourth quarter. In addition, the expansion outside the province will proceed smoothly.Long-term development. Profit forecast predicts that operating income will increase by +30 in 19-21.5% / 28.6% / 26.At 7%, net profit attributable to mothers increased by +30 respectively.7% / + 29.9% / + 28.8%, corresponding EPS is 0.90 yuan / 1.16 yuan / 1.50 yuan, currently expected to correspond to 19/20/21 PE respectively 42X / 32X / 25X, maintain “Buy” rating. Risk prompts demand growth rate / sub-high end space compression