Haida Group (002311)： Poultry and aquatic materials have a better growth momentum and the overall performance is stable
Haida Group (002311): Poultry and aquatic materials have a better growth momentum and the overall performance is stable
Net profit attributable to mothers increased by 21 in the first quarter of 19.
81%, in line with the expected 19Q1 results announced by Haida Group: revenue 88.
75 ppm, an increase of 22 in ten years.
25%; net profit attributable to mother 1.
22 ppm, an increase of 21 in ten years.
81%, corresponding profit 0.
08 yuan, performance in line with expectations.
1) The total sales volume of our feed in 1Q19 is about 230 tons, an increase of about 20% each year, of which the sales of pig feed / poultry feed / aquatic feed are about 50/145/35, and the increase is about 5% / 30% / 20%; 2) We judge that the gross profit margin of feed in 1Q19 is basically stable, of which the gross profit margin of pig feed fell slightly; the gross profit margin of poultry feed gradually increased due to the optimization of poultry feed management efficiency; in aquatic feed, the gross profit margin of pellet feed declined slightly, butThe overall gross profit margin of aquatic products is basically the same; 3) We reduced 200,000 pigs from the 1Q19 pig market, but because of the overall sluggish pig price in 1Q19, we reduced our heads by about 150 yuan, and the overall breeding business decreased by 30 million yuan.
Development trends Poultry meat and aquatic materials have improved their growth momentum this year: The high price of poultry meat year-to-date has provided an alternate and stable external environment for poultry and livestock operations. At the same time, the company has achieved a certain efficiency advantage in poultry manure, taking into account the increase in profitabilityTake 无锡桑拿网 care of heavy volume goals.
We predict that the annual feed sales volume of livestock and poultry will increase by 23% to 650 tons, and the net profit of the ton will remain at a high level of more than 50 yuan (we forecast that the net profit of 1Q19 ton has exceeded 60 yuan, and the net profit of 1Q18 ton is about 10 yuan low).
At the same time, there is still room for growth of aquatic materials. High pig prices are good for aquatic products prices, and the company’s sales are upgraded. The proportion of high-end extruded materials continues to increase. We expect to increase the sales volume of aquatic materials by 20% to 370 tons. The growth rate of high-end extruded materials is expected to reach30%.
There is uncertainty in pig feed and pig breeding operations: due to the replacement of live pig stocks, 天津夜网 the company will face certain pressure on pig feed sales this year. Our revenue in 1Q19 was only around 5%, and pig prices were bullish.There is an opportunity for pig feed sales to improve, but we are currently only seeing a 10% increase in expected sales to 255.
Regarding the pig breeding business, we expect to expand the market to see 1 million heads (700,000 heads in 2018), and then if the epidemic situation worsens or the price of piglets is too high, or the company will limit the volume of the company’s market.
Earnings forecasts remain attributable to net profit attributable to mothers for 2019/202017.
2.4 billion unchanged.
Estimates and recommendations The estimates correspond to 27/20 times the 2019/2020 estimates.
Maintain the recommended level and a target price of RMB 34. The target price corresponds to a price / earnings ratio of 30/22 times in 2019/2020, +11.
Risks Downturn in the downstream aquaculture industry continues to slump; Raw material prices fluctuate sharply; Extreme weather effects