Hualu Hengsheng (600426): The second series of value analysis of chemical industry leaders

Hualu Hengsheng (600426): The second series of value analysis of chemical industry leaders

The company is a leading company in coal and coal chemical industry. In the past 10 years, the average profit rate of the industry is close to zero, and the compound growth rate of profit is still more than 20%. The reason lies in the cost-leading strategy rooted in technological and management advantages.

In the future, we judge that not only the company’s cost advantage supplement will continue to be strengthened, but the replacement of projects such as caprolactam and glucose will open up new growth space for the company, and it is expected to create another Hualu, as follows: Core point cost advantage measurement: Hualu is a leading company in carbon dioxide technologyIn addition to the cost advantage of traditional coal water slurry technology, the company’s latest three-atmosphericization platform exchange scale and efficiency advantages, and the ability to flexibly adjust the structure of the end product is more difficult to replicate.

At the same time, the company’s equipment investment intensity, number of workers and period expense rate are also at the lowest level in the industry, and the cost advantage of the integration of the park is also very significant.

Based on the above advantages, we estimate that the cost advantage of the company’s existing production capacity over its peers is about $ 1.8 billion.

Prospects for future growth: Hualu Development’s past development model is 南京夜网 to continuously realize the upstream and upstream gas production capacity by extending the downstream industrial chain.

In the future, the caprolactam project will be gradually put into production, and the company is expected to achieve capacity expansion without excessive consumption of synthesis gas.

According to our calculations, the cost advantage per ton is more than 2,000 yuan. Assuming that the forward million metric tons capacity is measured, the added profit scale is 2 billion yuan.

Price elasticity is huge: Judging from the price difference, most of Hualu’s products have approached or even exceeded the historical average. Not only will there be little room for future reduction, but it may also be improved through the replacement of the overall coal chemical production capacity.

Especially for the coaxial cable in the whole industry, the company’s cost 合肥夜网 is not only the lowest among coal heads, but the benchmark oil head cost advantage is above 1,000 yuan / ton, which makes the industry return to normal and has great potential upward flexibility.

Financial Forecast and Investment Suggestions We predict that the first EPS of Hualu Hengsheng will be 1 in 19-21.


58 and 1.

70 yuan, according to the company’s 12-year 19 times price-earnings ratio, the first time the target price of 17 is covered.

04 yuan and buy level.

Risks indicate fluctuations in prices of products and raw materials; progress of new projects is not up to expectations.

Wandong Medical (600055) Interim Report Comments: Order Confirmation Progress Affects First Half Performance, Product Structure Continuously Optimized, Long-Term Development

Wandong Medical (600055) Interim Report Comments: Order Confirmation Progress Affects First Half Performance, Product Structure Continuously Optimized, Long-Term Development

Many factors led to lower-than-expected results in the interim report, and the expected increase in revenue growth in the second half of the year, the company’s revenue3.

800 million (-0.

61%), net profit is 0.

4.4 billion (+4.

2%), deducting non-net profit of 0.

3.9 billion (+7.

67%), lower than market expectations.

In a single quarter, Q2 had a single quarter revenue of 2.

200 billion (-12.

1%), single quarter net profit is 0.

3.9 billion (-0.

9%), single quarter gross margin of 51 in the second quarter.

1%, an increase of 6 per year.

5 units, an increase of 10 from the previous quarter.

For 7 samples, we judge, expand, and pass 1.

5T MRI sales increase, scale advantage and the purchase of core components superconductor lead to a 厦门夜网 step-by-step price reduction. At the same time, DSA with higher gross profit margins also grows faster, while DR sales from lower government gross profit margins are reduced.The proportion further declined, leading to a significant increase in the company’s gross profit margin.

We believe that the company’s revenue growth in the first half of the year is not good. The main factors are: 1. DR sales growth, which accounts for nearly 40% of revenue, is expected to increase by 15%?
20%, only a high base in the same period in 2018, replacing the government procurement and hospital procurement progress in the first half of 2019 were lower than expected, of which Yunnan and Hunan won a total of about 250 DR DR orders in the second half of the year; 2, the first half of the year 1.

5T MRI and DSA sales orders and sales trends have 杭州夜网 achieved rapid growth, but due to the certain period from order confirmation to product delivery revenue, is it expected that the revenue of the two major products will increase by 20% in the first half of the year?
30% is actually underestimating the true growth trend of the two major products.

In summary, the company’s overall revenue in the first half of the year remained basically flat.

But looking ahead, we expect to accelerate and recognize revenue through government procurement projects and hospital procurement of medical equipment, DSA and 1.

5T MRI recognizes revenue, and we expect the company to achieve revenue growth of more than 20%.

The company’s product structure continues to be optimized, optimistic about the company’s mid- and long-term development. Although the company’s revenue and profit performance in the first half of the year is not good, in fact, the company’s products and business structure are undergoing significant positive changes:Demand changes, the company launched a number of new DR products, and constantly enrich the DR product line; 2. In response to the upgrade needs of the county market, the company completed the new type 1.

Registration of 5T MRI and new DSA, new 1.

The 5T MRI scan speed and image quality have been significantly improved, achieving advanced functions such as liposuction imaging, magnetic sensitive imaging, and abdominal diffusion imaging, which meet the clinical requirements of hospitals at county level and above. The new DSA can also optimize imaging dose and image quality; 3.16-row CT has solved the improvement of product stability and reconstruction image quality, and can be listed in small batches in the second half of the year. 4. Private brand ultrasound has completed a number of product prototypes for primary hospitals and county-level hospitals, and has begun to deliver CFDA.Registered trademark, completed the preliminary preparations for the production site, production staff, sales and after-sales team.

Taking into account the operating conditions in the first half of the year, we lowered our profit forecast.
2021 revenue growth of 20% (-10%) / 26% / 24% (-1%), net profit.

0 (-0.

18) / 2.

70 (-0.

15) / 3.

51 (-0.

17) 100 million yuan, a 10-year growth of 30% (-12%) / 35% (+ 4%) / 30% (+ 1%), the current PE 28/21/16 times, Wanliyun business has started to make profitsThe product structure continued to be optimized, and Yumio’s color Doppler ultrasound business was expected to be injected in the follow-up period. Maintaining the “strong recommendation” level risk warning: product sales were lower than expected; new products and color Doppler’s listing progress gradually expected

Haida Group (002311): Poultry and aquatic materials have a better growth momentum and the overall performance is stable

Haida Group (002311): Poultry and aquatic materials have a better growth momentum and the overall performance is stable

Net profit attributable to mothers increased by 21 in the first quarter of 19.

81%, in line with the expected 19Q1 results announced by Haida Group: revenue 88.

75 ppm, an increase of 22 in ten years.

25%; net profit attributable to mother 1.

22 ppm, an increase of 21 in ten years.

81%, corresponding profit 0.

08 yuan, performance in line with expectations.

1) The total sales volume of our feed in 1Q19 is about 230 tons, an increase of about 20% each year, of which the sales of pig feed / poultry feed / aquatic feed are about 50/145/35, and the increase is about 5% / 30% / 20%; 2) We judge that the gross profit margin of feed in 1Q19 is basically stable, of which the gross profit margin of pig feed fell slightly; the gross profit margin of poultry feed gradually increased due to the optimization of poultry feed management efficiency; in aquatic feed, the gross profit margin of pellet feed declined slightly, butThe overall gross profit margin of aquatic products is basically the same; 3) We reduced 200,000 pigs from the 1Q19 pig market, but because of the overall sluggish pig price in 1Q19, we reduced our heads by about 150 yuan, and the overall breeding business decreased by 30 million yuan.

Development trends Poultry meat and aquatic materials have improved their growth momentum this year: The high price of poultry meat year-to-date has provided an alternate and stable external environment for poultry and livestock operations. At the same time, the company has achieved a certain efficiency advantage in poultry manure, taking into account the increase in profitabilityTake 无锡桑拿网 care of heavy volume goals.

We predict that the annual feed sales volume of livestock and poultry will increase by 23% to 650 tons, and the net profit of the ton will remain at a high level of more than 50 yuan (we forecast that the net profit of 1Q19 ton has exceeded 60 yuan, and the net profit of 1Q18 ton is about 10 yuan low).

At the same time, there is still room for growth of aquatic materials. High pig prices are good for aquatic products prices, and the company’s sales are upgraded. The proportion of high-end extruded materials continues to increase. We expect to increase the sales volume of aquatic materials by 20% to 370 tons. The growth rate of high-end extruded materials is expected to reach30%.

There is uncertainty in pig feed and pig breeding operations: due to the replacement of live pig stocks, 天津夜网 the company will face certain pressure on pig feed sales this year. Our revenue in 1Q19 was only around 5%, and pig prices were bullish.There is an opportunity for pig feed sales to improve, but we are currently only seeing a 10% increase in expected sales to 255.

Regarding the pig breeding business, we expect to expand the market to see 1 million heads (700,000 heads in 2018), and then if the epidemic situation worsens or the price of piglets is too high, or the company will limit the volume of the company’s market.

Earnings forecasts remain attributable to net profit attributable to mothers for 2019/202017.


2.4 billion unchanged.

Estimates and recommendations The estimates correspond to 27/20 times the 2019/2020 estimates.

Maintain the recommended level and a target price of RMB 34. The target price corresponds to a price / earnings ratio of 30/22 times in 2019/2020, +11.

5% space.

Risks Downturn in the downstream aquaculture industry continues to slump; Raw material prices fluctuate sharply; Extreme weather effects

Qianyuan Power (002039) Commentary on Major Issues: Launch of Non-Public Upgrade Platform Layout to Increase Dividend Hedging

Qianyuan Power (002039) Commentary on Major Issues: Launch of Non-Public Upgrade Platform Layout to Increase Dividend Hedging
The additional issuance will help Huadian Group to strengthen control and help the company become an important capital operation platform of the group. It is expected that subsequent capital operation progress will gradually be put on the agenda; the future rate of return range calculated according to the new return plan is 3.7%?4.7%, which has a certain attractiveness; the DCF estimation method is used to obtain a target price of 18.70 yuan / share, maintain “Buy” rating. The company launched a non-public offering plan.The scale 北京夜网 of funds raised in this issuance plan is up to 6.8 trillion, the planned issue size is not more than 0.4.3 billion shares, the proposed issue price is not less than 90% of the average stock transaction price 20 trading days before the pricing benchmark date. The additional issue is the major shareholder Huadian Group. The funds are used to repay bank loans and improve the company’s financial status. The company is expected to rise within Huadian Group.Prior to this offering, the major shareholder Huadian Group directly and indirectly held equity in the company25.98%, the proportion of shareholdings. After the completion of this additional issue, the maximum shareholding ratio of major shareholders will increase to 35.12%, increasing control over the company means that the company continues to rise within the group, and the 佛山桑拿网 company is expected to become an important capital operation platform for the follow-up Huadian Group. Subsequent capital operations are expected to be on the agenda.The company’s chairman has recently been replaced. The new chairman, Mr. Tao Yunpeng, has served as the director of the Capital Operations and Ownership Management Department of Huadian Group and has extensive experience in the capital field.After the completion of this additional issue, objective considerations such as the increase in the majority shareholder’s shareholding, the background of the new chairman, and financial statements are expected. It is expected that the subsequent capital operation of the company will be on the agenda. Increasing the dividend payout to hedge the dilutive pressure, implying a continuous side indicates attitude.The scale of the proposed cap is 14.1%, scale is relatively tight, there is a certain pressure to dilute performance.The company’s past dividend payout ratio, 2017?The dividend payout ratio for 2018 was 28.6% and 24.9%, the company launched the next three years (2019?2021) shareholder return plan, the annual cash distribution of profits is more than 40% of the distributable profits realized that year.4 after following a reasonable and reasonable level of dividend yield?The 5 million US dollars belongs to the net profit range of the mother and the current stepwise calculation, the future dividend rate range may increase to 3.7%?4.7%, hedging diluted.In addition, the implied price calculated based on the size of the issue funds to be issued and the share cap is 15.81 yuan, the previous day’s closing price premium of 12.1% also shows the attitude of Huadian Group. Risk factors: running water is dry; electricity price is lowered; market-oriented profit margin and scale are expanded. Investment advice: Considering the uncertainty of non-public offerings, we temporarily maintain 2019?2021EPS Forecast 1.14/1.31/1.46 yuan, currently matching the corresponding P / E is 12/11/10 times.Use WACC6.27% and 0.Assumed 0% sustainable growth, the DCF discount method gives the company a target price of 18.70 yuan / share, maintain “Buy” rating.

The most bullish oversold stocks have 4 daily limit. The latest list of underestimated oversold stocks is here.

The most bullish oversold stocks have 4 daily limit. The latest list of underestimated oversold stocks is here.

The most bullish oversold stocks have 4 consecutive daily limit changes. The latest undervalued oversold stocks have come from the sources: Securities Times Bian Tianhua, Zangger Holdings, Cologne, Ogilvy Medical . The market today saw a large number of oversold rebound limit stocks.

  Tianhua once again rose and stopped today, harvesting its fourth consecutive rise and stop.

Before the continuous rising and stopping, its bearing once hovered around the low point of the year.

Since hitting an intra-year high in mid-April, Lutianhua has continued to fall, with the largest drop approaching 50%.

  Similar to Lu Tianhua, some oversold stocks rebounded during the year, such as Zangger Holdings, Cologne, Ogilvy Medical, etc.

The closing price of Zangge Holdings yesterday was higher than the year’s high, and today it continued to increase its daily limit; the closing price of Cologne yesterday fell more than 45% from the year’s high, and it was a strong sealing board in the early morning; the new stock Ogilvy Medical yesterday closed higher than the price since listingThe price fell by more than 40%, and the expansion midday was stopped by funds blocking growth.

  When some oversold stocks shined, the performance of A shares remained sluggish.

Today, the three major stock indexes contracted, and the turnover of the two cities was only in the early 320 billion yuan, a new 4-month low.

Since the current round of adjustments, the Shanghai Composite Index has fallen by nearly 12%, the GEM Index has gradually fallen by more than 15%, and the median gain of all A shares has been -17%, with more than 40 stocks slashing.

  The analysis believes that the market is currently in a low-level shock consolidation phase, and the funds are waiting to see a strong mood, but the capital of the north is still pouring into low-absorbing chips at the current point, and then the market may turn optimistic.Individual stocks are more vulnerable to market attention in the rebound market.

  The return of more than a hundred small market capitalization stocks has retreated more than 30%. Data treasure statistics show that the termination of today’s closing, excluding ST shares and the new shares listed in the past year, the A stock market value is less than 10 billion, and the latest price is more than the previous year’s high retracement.At the same time, there are 112 stocks with a rolling price-earnings ratio of less than 30 times and a compound growth 重庆耍耍网 rate of net profit of more than 30% in the past five years.

  The industry distribution shows that the above 112 stocks are widely distributed in 24 Shenwan first-level industries, of which the chemical industry is the most clustered, with 23; the electronics industry is the second, with 9 shortlisted; the building decoration, automotive, pharmaceutical and biological industries are integrated 7.
  In terms of market performance, Tonghua Golden Horse retraced the most. The high point during the year retreated by nearly 50%, and it has reduced by nearly 6% during the year, far behind the broader market. It is still hovering near the early lows in recent days.

  The Great Wall of Culture, followed by Xi’an Tourism, both of them have retreated more than 45% from their highs during the year.

The Great Wall of Culture had 杭州桑拿网 previously hit a new low in five years, with a cumulative decline of more than 20% during the year; Xi’an Tourism has gradually contracted around 10 yuan recently, and after a continuous period, the increase is still more than 30% during the year.

  Tend to weaken, the market value has also shrunk significantly.

Of the above 112 stocks, 17 stocks have the latest A stock market value of less than 3 billion U.S. dollars, Greenview Holdings, Nanfang shares, Cultural Great Wall A stock market value of less than 2 billion, Shanxi Luqiao (Huanwei), Hals, Haolong sharesThe value of 7 A shares is less than 2.5 billion yuan.

  Institutions favoring these extended partial retracements are still receiving more attention from approved institutions.

Data Bao statistics show that in the past six months, 62 of the above 112 stocks have been given a buy rating by the securities firm, and 10 of them have received more than 10 buy ratings.

  Home appliance shares Vantage shares have received 18 buy-in ratings, most favored by institutions.

The stock has grown gradually this year.

07%, retreating 33 from the April 4 high.

37%, the latest rolling price-earnings ratio is less than 14 times.

Vantage has a net profit composite strength of 24 in the past five years.

77%, the company achieved operating income in the first quarter of this year13.

USD 3.1 billion, a slight decrease of 6.

54%, achieving net profit1.

$ 3.6 billion, an annual increase of 14.


  Diou Home, another consumer stock, ranked second with 17 buy-in ratings.

In the early days, Diou Household also hit a new low since listing, but immediately opened a period of doubling in volume and price. Since the adjustment began in early April, it has reached nearly 40%.

At the time of unanimous adjustment, the stock was successively increased by Beishang Capital. In mid-May, Beishang Capital’s shareholding ratio was less than 0.

2%, which has now increased to about 1.


Zoomlion (000157) company comment: launch employee shareholding plan, perfect incentive mechanism, invest in agricultural machinery projects, and strengthen product competitiveness

Zoomlion (000157) company comment: launch employee shareholding plan, perfect incentive mechanism, invest in agricultural machinery projects, and strengthen product competitiveness

Zoomlion released the core operating strategic shareholding plan. The total number of people holding the shareholding plan does not exceed 1,200 (16 members from the board of directors and supervisors), and the stock source is 3 from the company’s share repurchase.

900 million shares at a purchase price of 2.

75 yuan / share (repurchase average price 5.

49% / share (50%), the duration of the shareholding plan is 48 months, and the unlocking will be started in phases after 12 months, with a maximum lock-up period of 36 months.

  Ingeniously design performance assessment conditions and improve the medium and long-term incentive mechanism. The employee shareholding plan is based on the arithmetic indicator of the company’s return to parent’s net profit in 2017-2019, and the three-year net profit growth rate in 2020-2022 as the unlocking condition.

The first, second, and three unlocking conditions are respectively, in proportion to the base, the net profit growth rate from 2020 to 2022 is not less than 80%, 90% (or two years gradually not less than 170%), and 100% (or three years)Cumulative not less than 270%).

This employee shareholding plan evaluates the company’s performance for the current year and the performance for 2-3 consecutive years, which can effectively encourage the company to work hard and go all out to promote development.

  Focus on incentives for earthmoving machinery, high-tech and agricultural machinery divisions, and effectively stimulate long-term development vitality. The total shareholding plan of this employee does not exceed 1,200 people, including 16 supervisors.While consolidating core business units such as cranes, tower cranes and concrete machinery, the heightened increase in the earthmoving machinery and aerial platform business units and agricultural machinery business units that have been newly developed in recent years will help the company cultivate new points of performance growth and ironing.Periodic fluctuations stimulate long-term development vitality.

  In 2020, the demand for construction machinery will be stable, and the company’s core product market share will rise steadily. 1) Tower cranes: With the continuous promotion of prefabricated buildings, the demand for large tower cranes is strong, and leasers with large coverage areas are dominant.

2) Truck cranes: It is expected that the industry demand will remain stable next year, and the company’s market share will increase to more than 25% in 2019. It is expected that the market share will continue to increase in the next 2-3 years.Investment remains strong, supporting the demand for concrete pump 佛山桑拿网 trucks, increasing demand and environmental protection upgrades. Concrete machinery is expected to continue to maintain a high degree of prosperity.

  The Wuxi viaduct incident drove strict overload management and boosted sales of small-tonnage mixer trucks.

  Investment 20 in the next 6 years.

500 million US dollars to build agricultural machinery projects, gradually consolidating the competitiveness of agricultural machinery products companies issued project investment announcements, plans to invest 20 in 2020-2025.

USD 500 million to invest in the construction of an intelligent agricultural machinery industrialization project in Sanshan District, Wuhu City. It is planned to improve the company’s informatization level through intelligent equipment research and development, and use existing plants to integrate existing 合肥夜网 production lines, purchase necessary equipment, and realize China UnitedIndustrialization of heavy machinery intelligent agricultural equipment.

The company’s agricultural machinery business substantially reduced losses in the first half of 2019, and it is expected that long-term operating profits will turn losses. Next year, it is expected to make a positive contribution to performance.

  Earnings forecast and investment grade: It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent from 2019 to 2020 will be 4.5 billion and 5.5 billion, respectively. It will continue to focus on its attention and maintain a “buy” rating.

  Risk reminders: Infrastructure investment is less than expected, real estate investment is less than expected, and industry competition is intensifying.

PetroChina (601857): Performance Upstream Focuses on H2 Capital Expenditure Completion

PetroChina (601857): Performance Upstream Focuses on H2 Capital Expenditure Completion

Event: The company released its semi-annual report for 2019 and achieved a total operating income of 11962 in 19H1.

5.9 billion (+6 year-on-year.

8%), achieving net profit attributable to mother 284.

2.3 billion (+3 year-on-year.

6%) and realized operating net cash flow of 1344.

250,000 yuan (YOY-9.

1%), in line with market expectations.

  Profits from exploration and production have greatly increased, and the performance of refining and chemicals has fallen sharply. From the perspective of plate operations in the first half of 2019, exploration and production have achieved both volume and price increases-domestic crude oil achieved 369.

8 million barrels, an increase of 1 in ten years.

6%, natural gas production 1825.

1bcf (billion cubic feet), surpassing the added value of 10.

7%, the total oil and gas production equivalent of 19H1 Group is 779.

4 million barrels, which will increase by 5.

9%; the average realized price of crude oil / natural gas is 3170 yuan / ton and 1391 yuan / thousand cubic meters, each time +5.

8 / -1.


The operating profit of the exploration and production segment in 19H1 was 536.

28 trillion, a big increase of 79 in ten years.

4%; Affected by the increase in crude oil prices and the general decline in the prices of refining and chemical products, the domestic refining gross margin has narrowed significantly, and the company’s refining and chemical business performance has also been severely challenged: the company’s operating profit in 19H1 was 49.

67 trillion, 18H1 (246.

91 percent of $ 79 billion.

88%; of which refining / chemical is 13 respectively.


900,000 yuan, a total of 92 in ten years.



  The estimated value added of the capital expenditure of the H2 exploration and production segment is USD 60 billion, and the exploration and development is USD 228.2 billion, which is the absolute largest proportion of capital expenditures. The capital expenditure of the Group’s exploration and production segment in the first half of 2019 was RMB693.

US $ 8.3 billion, mainly for domestic exploration of key basins in Songliao, Ordos, Tarim, Sichuan, Bohai Bay, and the development of oil and gas fields 杭州桑拿 in Daqing and Changqing; the completion rate in the first half of the year was 30.

40% is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year.

It is expected that the company’s performance will be further concentrated in the future, and the overall performance and the correlation of oil prices will be broken down.

  Profit forecast: The net profit attributable to mothers is expected to be 578 in 2019-2021.



62 ppm, corresponding to 19/19/18 times the corresponding PE, maintaining the “overweight” level.

  Risk reminder: Macroeconomic downside risks, capital expenditures for exploration and production are less than expected.

Jiangling Motors (000550): Focus on Light Commercial Vehicles to Reduce Costs and Increase Efficiency, Waiting for Recovery

Jiangling Motors (000550): Focus on Light Commercial Vehicles to Reduce Costs and Increase Efficiency, Waiting for Recovery

Company NewsCompany StatusWe participated in the investor exchange meeting held by JMC on July 17.

  The review seeks profit opportunities with high gross profit margins in the advancement of light commercial vehicles.

The segmentation of the light commercial vehicle market segment requires a high degree of understanding of customer application scenarios and needs. JMC has deep accumulation and experience in this field, has traditional advantages, and has a profitability far exceeding the passenger vehicle segment.Source of profit.

We expect the company to continue to increase investment in commercial vehicles, establish commercial vehicle centers, and strengthen channel construction and cost control.

  In the high-end process of light commercial vehicles, there are many profit opportunities in the high gross margin segment model market. Only in the high gross margin model market such as ambulances, JMC’s market share has exceeded 50%. JMC will continue to grasp moreGross 北京养生 Margin Segment Opportunities.

  Improve capacity utilization with low-margin SUV products and export business.

Under the high pressure of the industry, the company’s passenger car segment is less profitable, and the company’s SUV products are more cost-effective, but it is difficult to find systematic opportunities in the red sea of joint ventures and autonomous divisions, resulting in passenger car sales that cannot achieve scale breakthroughs.

The company’s export business is also actively promoted, expanding from commercial vehicle exports to passenger vehicles.

We believe that the company can share depreciation through low-margin SUV products and export business, while improving overall capacity utilization. The Ford Jiangling brand will also continue to benefit from Ford’s channel and brand support, and then continue to launch new products.

  Cost reduction and efficiency improvement await the adjustment and recovery of the industry.

The price fluctuations of the company’s products are extremely stable, and the price-for-amount swap is not obvious. We expect the company to reduce costs and increase efficiency in the industry’s downward interval to improve internal operating efficiency, pending the industry’s recovery.

The “large tonnage and small standard” incident has a short-term impact on the light truck industry, but we believe that for Jiangling, which mainly carries light truck products, the industry’s supervision is strict, which can rectify irregularities, help the company’s market share recover, and promote the industry.Medium and long-term healthy development.

  It is estimated that the company released a performance forecast last week, saying that the net profit attributable to the mother in the first half of the year is expected to reach 58.86 million yuan, which is lower than the market and our expectations. Considering that the company’s sales and profitability pressures have been overcome, the passenger car segment has developed less than expected.Revise down the company’s 19-20 year profit forecast by 53% and 36% to 2.

7.6 billion and 5.

7.5 billion.

At present the company corresponds to 1.

5x2019e / 2020e P / B, we maintain the company’s neutral rating, taking into account earnings forecast adjustments, we cut the company’s A / B share target price by 30% to 21 yuan / 7.

9 reconstruction, A shares correspond to 1.

7x2019e / 2020e P / B, there is 12% upside from the current price.

B shares correspond to 0.

6x2019e / 2020e P / B, there is 5% upside from the current price.

  Risky commercial vehicle profit recovery is lower than expected.

Nanjing-Shanghai Expressway (600377): Good choice for defense configuration with performance in line with expectations

Nanjing-Shanghai Expressway (600377): Good choice for defense configuration with performance in line with expectations

In the first half of the year, income fell by 5 per year.

96%, deducting non-net profit increased by 9 in ten years.

78%, performance in line with expectations On August 25, Ninghu Expressway released its 2019 Interim Report: 1) Revenue decreased by 5.

96% to 48.

3.5 billion yuan, net profit attributable to mothers decreased by 8.

30% to 22.

8.2 billion, net non-profit increased by 9.

78% to 22.

6.6 billion yuan; 2) Performance is in line with expectations (our profit forecast is 22.

04 billion).

In the same period last year, the company confirmed the value-added income due to the consolidation of Hanwei Company4.

310,000 yuan, making the performance base higher.

The non-performance growth mainly comes from the endogenous growth of traffic flow and increased investment income.

We expect the EPS for 2019-2021 to be zero.



96 yuan, adjust the target price to 10.


20 yuan, maintaining the “overweight” level.

The main business of toll roads has grown steadily. Due to the 1H19 revenue interruption in the land business during the settlement cycle, the gross profit decreased by 5.

96%, 0.

19%, mainly affected by the land settlement cycle, the delivery scale is less than 1H18; toll roads and real estate account for 90% and 7% of gross profit.

Benefiting from the endogenous growth of traffic flow, toll revenue is increasing by 5 per year.

18%; of which, Shanghai-Nanjing Expressway revenue on core sections increased by 4 year-on-year.

84%, Guangjing Xicheng, Ningchang Town, and the income of Xiyihuan Taihu Expressway increased by 2.

88%, 5.

03%, 3.


Land business income is reduced by 48 per year.

38%, mainly due to the central delivery of Suzhou South Gate project in 1H18, and no new delivery project in 1H19.

Ancillary service income is reduced by 14 each year.

96%, due to the implementation of double-deck tank reforms in service areas, sales of oil products decreased by 17%.


The high base dragged down the growth rate of net profit, investment income increased by 1H19 each year, and the company’s gross profit decreased by 5.59 million yuan; after deducting 1H18 the value-added income of Hanwei Company4.

After 3.1 billion, operating profit in 1H19 increased further 2.

6.9 billion yuan.

The difference is mainly due to the increase in non-investment income1.
The increase of 7.8 billion US dollars was mainly due to the increase in vehicle traffic of associates and the increase in dividends of participating companies. Among them, the investment income of the Yangtze Bridge and Sujiahang increased.
93%, 21.


Due to the new highway construction, 3 companies with heavy capital expenditures are under construction in 2019-2021, and 1 road and bridge project is planned to be built, with a total investment of about 25.5 billion yuan, of which Wufeng Mountain, Changyi and Yichang project progress is 64.

4%, 58.

5%, 38.


We expect capital expenditure to remain high in 2019-2021, and short-term cash flow will be affected to a certain extent; due to the capitalization of loan interest, the net profit during the construction period will decrease less.

Affected by the abolition of the provincial border toll station policy across the country, the company will complete the ETC equipment renovation in the second half of the year; starting in July, the Jiangsu ETC discount will be adjusted from 98% to 5%.

In the long run, charging efficiency is expected to improve, and labor costs (1H19 is 2).

9.9 billion) is expected to decline.

We expect the multi-year impact of ETC discount changes on Jiangsu rates to be -2.

5% (2H19), -3.

5% (1H20), -1.

0% (2H20), but increased efficiency and reduced rates also attract traffic.

Adjust target price to 10.


20 yuan, to maintain the “overweight” rating We adjust the 2019/20/21 return to mother’s net profit forecast to 40.



2.8 billion (previously 41.



6.8 billion).

We expect dividends to grow steadily in 2019/20/21, corresponding to a dividend yield of 4.

8% / 5.

0% / 5.

2% (closing date 20190823).

We adjust our target price to 10.


20 yuan (10 last time.


00 yuan), based on: 1) still based on 13.

3x 2019PE (industry estimated hub is 10.

2x 2019PE, given a premium due to high yields), with an estimated target price of 10.

80 yuan; 2) DCF: based on WACC = 7.

81% (previous 7).

86%) Estimated target price 11.

20 yuan.
Maintain 青岛夜网 the “overweight” rating.

Risk reminder: The economic scale of the Yangtze River Delta, the traffic growth rate exceeds expectations, and real estate sales are lower than expected.

Annual report series of thematic analysis of consumer companies (3): Aoji e-commerce (834206): Some categories incubate mature revenues to achieve 35.

83% growth

Annual report series of thematic analysis of consumer companies (3): Aoji e-commerce (834206): Some categories incubate mature revenues to achieve 35.

83% growth

Event: The company released the 2018 performance report, and the company’s revenue was 50.

760,000 yuan, an increase of 35 in ten years.

83%, net profit attributable to mothers2.

49 ppm, a five-year increase of 5.


Leader in cross-border e-commerce, the business involves multiple platforms: the company operates cross-border e-commerce business, mainly through Amazon, eBay, Wish, AliExpress and other third-party sales platforms and self-built sales websites, direct cost-effective products made in China directlySales to foreign consumers.

The company’s business development involves multiple e-commerce platforms. In addition to self-built independent websites in German, French, and other small European languages, it also involves in third-party international platforms such as Amazon, eBay, AliExpress, Wish, Tmall, and JD.Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Portugal, the United Kingdom, Russia, Japan, Canada, the United States and other 200 countries and regions, operating categories include digital electronics, photography equipment, wedding apparel, fashion apparel, car, homeWait.

(Company official website, company announcement) “Independent brand + comprehensive category”, category incubation matures to drive good performance: In the independent brand segment, the company established multiple brand divisions, using the “independent research and development design + external processing and production” independent brandProduct model, product differentiation and cost advantages are obvious; on the integrated category side, the company uses its own built IT system and adopts the “pan supply chain, multi-channel, multi-category, multi-warehouse” business model to bring high-quality products made in China toSell products to overseas buyers through self-built shopping websites and third-party shopping platform channels.

The integrated category business has the advantages of rich product categories and diverse supply channels.

Against the background of industry growth, the company has expanded research and development of independent brand products and market development efforts. Some categories have matured incubation, and the revenue scale has continued to grow. In 2018, the company’s 厦门夜网 revenue was 50.

760,000 yuan, an increase of 35 in ten years.


Deeply integrate the supply chain and establish a cross-border e-commerce collaborative ecosystem: The company strives to build an ecosystem with high-quality manufacturers and merchants by deepening the supply chain.

In the future, Aoji e-commerce will further deepen the integration of the supply chain and build its own brand, integrate its own brand with its own website and open its own website platform, accelerate the layout of the global logistics system and payment platform, and develop derivative services related to supply chain finance, etc.
(Company official website) Implement employee equity incentive plan to further stimulate employee enthusiasm: According to the company’s announcement, the company completed a stock increase in September 2018, and issued 187 shares at the price of 12 yuan / share.

50,000 shares, raised a total of 22.5 million yuan, 8 of the 25 participants in the subscription are called company executives, 17 core employees.

The latest closing price of Aojie E-commerce is 56 yuan / share. Based on this calculation, the actual market value of this part of the stock is as high as 105 million yuan.

The 25 subscribers of Aoji e-commerce can currently get nearly 82.5 million yuan of Fuying (company annual report) investment advice: to transform into the “Internet + foreign trade” strategy implemented by China, and the ceiling of the cross-border e-commerce industry is sufficiently high.The future outlook continues to maintain a high growth rate.

We are optimistic about the company’s benchmarking branches in cross-border e-commerce leading companies and industries in China, and the latest company’s PE (TTM) is 19.

3x, it is recommended to pay attention.

Risk reminder: Consumption upgrade fails to meet expectations; Macroeconomics fails to meet expectations; Policy risks