Hualu Hengsheng (600426): The second series of value analysis of chemical industry leaders
The company is a leading company in coal and coal chemical industry. In the past 10 years, the average profit rate of the industry is close to zero, and the compound growth rate of profit is still more than 20%. The reason lies in the cost-leading strategy rooted in technological and management advantages.
In the future, we judge that not only the company’s cost advantage supplement will continue to be strengthened, but the replacement of projects such as caprolactam and glucose will open up new growth space for the company, and it is expected to create another Hualu, as follows: Core point cost advantage measurement: Hualu is a leading company in carbon dioxide technologyIn addition to the cost advantage of traditional coal water slurry technology, the company’s latest three-atmosphericization platform exchange scale and efficiency advantages, and the ability to flexibly adjust the structure of the end product is more difficult to replicate.
At the same time, the company’s equipment investment intensity, number of workers and period expense rate are also at the lowest level in the industry, and the cost advantage of the integration of the park is also very significant.
Based on the above advantages, we estimate that the cost advantage of the company’s existing production capacity over its peers is about $ 1.8 billion.
Prospects for future growth: Hualu Development’s past development model is 南京夜网 to continuously realize the upstream and upstream gas production capacity by extending the downstream industrial chain.
In the future, the caprolactam project will be gradually put into production, and the company is expected to achieve capacity expansion without excessive consumption of synthesis gas.
According to our calculations, the cost advantage per ton is more than 2,000 yuan. Assuming that the forward million metric tons capacity is measured, the added profit scale is 2 billion yuan.
Price elasticity is huge: Judging from the price difference, most of Hualu’s products have approached or even exceeded the historical average. Not only will there be little room for future reduction, but it may also be improved through the replacement of the overall coal chemical production capacity.
Especially for the coaxial cable in the whole industry, the company’s cost 合肥夜网 is not only the lowest among coal heads, but the benchmark oil head cost advantage is above 1,000 yuan / ton, which makes the industry return to normal and has great potential upward flexibility.
Financial Forecast and Investment Suggestions We predict that the first EPS of Hualu Hengsheng will be 1 in 19-21.
58 and 1.
70 yuan, according to the company’s 12-year 19 times price-earnings ratio, the first time the target price of 17 is covered.
04 yuan and buy level.
Risks indicate fluctuations in prices of products and raw materials; progress of new projects is not up to expectations.